Backgammon Probability Charts

Backgammon is more a game of probabilities than a game of chance. The chances of rolling double 6's, the odds of hitting the blot at a certain position can be measured. Fortunately, no degree in statistics is required for you to know your chances in winning a backgammon game.

Backgammon probability charts are commonly in use by players of all expertise levels and they are extremely helpful for backgammon beginners. The most common backgammon charts calculate the probability of hitting a blot and the chances of entering from the bar.

Probability of Hitting a Blot

No. of Points	No. of Ways	Chances to be Hit	No. of Points	No. of Ways	Chances to be Hit
1	11	31%	13	0	0%
2	12	33%	14	0	0%
3	14	39%	15	1	3%
4	15	42%	16	1	3%
5	15	42%	17	0	0%
6	17	47%	18	1	3%
7	6	17%	19	0	0%
8	6	17%	20	1	3%
9	5	14%	21	0	0%
10	3	8%	22	0	0%
11	2	6%	23	0	0%
12	3	8%	24	1	3%

The first chart exemplifies the probabilities of hitting a blot. You can see the number of points away (from the blot), the number of possible ways to being hit, and the odds of hitting a blot. When looking at this chart, it is important to remember that not all points are necessarily open (though this fact was not counted in this chart).

Looking at the chart you can learn that the best hitting position is 6 points away from the blot. 5 and 4 points away still leaves you with decent hitting chances, but once the blot is 7 points away your chances fall down to 17%.

Probability of Entering from the Bar

	One Checker		Two Checkers

Open Points	No. of Ways	Chances to Enter	No. of Ways	Chances to Enter

6	36	100%	36	100%
5	35	97%	25	69%
4	32	89%	16	44%
3	27	75%	9	25%
2	11	31%	1	3%
1	0	0%	0	0%

The second probability chart shows the chances of re-entering when there are one or two checkers on the bar. As you can see, you have more than 50% chance to enter one checker from the bar even if your opponent has closed 4 points. However, if you have two checkers on the bar, your chances decline to 25% once your opponent has closed 3 points.